It's time to realise that in most cases, people don't know what they are doing. At least in the C4-tier of w-space where we currently roam. Some of the pilots in R-NAT that are still new to w-space always overestimate the opposition. They think everybody else have the same information (or more) then them. They suspect a trap everywhere and believe that people are always doing the smart thing. If one drop probes in a system and then five minutes later a hauler goes out to a planet to do PI it got to be a trap because they know we are here, right? They must have seen our probes!
There is a thesis called Occams Razor. It more or less states that "one should proceed to simpler theories until simplicity can be traded for greater explanatory power."
Simplest explanation is often the correct one, in this, not so hypothetical, case - that PI dude simply did not d-scan the system. Simple as that.
In fact, it was pretty evident that they had not seen us lurking around, because five minutes later they set out to plex in three Tengus. One survived.
The fit on those also shows that people in C4s in general don't know what they are doing. Interdiction nullified? That did not help them much. Buffer-fit with RR? MWDs? And what's up with the medium shield transporter? I guess that's all part of some clever idea that would make perfect sense if I only knew what they where thinking.
Or maybe not...
3 comments:
nice puppy dog , lol
-magger
It's true we "overestimated" the opposition, however in some cases - at least with dealing with a pilot/corp for the first time, it's wise to assume they have at least some basic degree of intelligence/knowledge of wormhole space to reside in a C4. In this particular instance, we still engaged even if it were a trap - because we had a strong fleet, and that was the smart thing to do. We did the right thing, and it paid off. However if we engaged with a minimal fleet, we still might of been fine - however we made a small risk in doing so.
There is rarely gain without risk, or at least significant gain without risk - especially in wormhole space. It's right to assume that your opponents MAY know something that's readily accessible to them, to be on the safer side of the fence.
We still can take risks, even if we know that it is a risk we are taking - we are merely making it known that, our opponents might very well be prepared to prevent the 10% chance things go pear shaped to take anyone by surprise.
It was a good fight, we got 4 nice kill mails (2 tengus, 2 pods) and in reality almost no risk was taken after we realized just how inept our opponents were.
Though, despite this - I still feel strong that, against pilots we have limited information about and have not fought before, we should remain cautious. We are professionals, they are meat to be butchered 8)
@Teddy: I don't know about "good fight". More like a successful gank .)
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